Skip to main content

Five reasons why i'm bullish on the US Dollar in the short term!

  Five reasons why i'm bullish on the US Dollar in the short term:


1) The Fed has announced average inflation targeting at the Jackson Hole but did not provide any inflation-outcome-based forward guidance so now they're sitting on the sideline,

2) Trump is making a comeback in the national polls and we could see the greenback rally into the US election,

 

 3) After the start of the reopenings the US data has been outperforming and beating expectations relative to the rest of the world,

 

4) Based on the CFTC reports the Euro longs are so stretched now and climbed to nearly a decade tops,


5) Technically last week the dollar index DXY broke out of the trend channel and did hold after the retest,


In conclusion, i don't think the market is ready to liquidate all USD shorts yet and there are certainly reasons why this is not the case, but at least we're due for a pullback in the near term.

  

Article by Halim Haddad,

 

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Why I Turned Bearish on GOLD!

 Real Yields may have bottomed: I have been bullish on Gold since May last year, primarily because of falling real yields (Nominal Rates - Inflation Expectation) which historically have an inverse correlation with the yellow metal, the large stimulus that was provided by the US government has driven Inflation expectation Up while the central bank keeping the short end of the curve at near zero, the result is a falling Real yield, as we can see in the chart below. But now with the expectation of a strong recovery in 2021, we're starting to see nominal rates (10-year Treasury bond yield) on the rise, and with Inflation expectation already above the Fed target of 2% there is very little room for upside there. The outcome of this is that Nominal rates will start to go higher faster than Inflation Expectation I,e Rising Real yields which is the enemy of Gold. This can seem controversial for some people because there is a popular belief that Gold can be a hedge against Inflation. While t...

FX Macro Themes for November

 Macro Themes for FX Majors: EUR/USD: as many health experts expected the second wave of Covid 19 is here, France, Germany, and Belgium are in lockdowns, and more countries to join in the coming weeks, for me that means two things. First, the fourth quarter growth will come below the expectations, and one of the factors behind the surge in the Euro from May is the better handling of Covid 19 from European countries especially Germany relative to the US, but now it's quite the opposite, Europe is in a lockdown and I don't think the US will go into that path, because their health system is in better shape and well prepared, Second, more easing to come from the ECB in the next month, the market is expecting at least 500bn euro increase in the size of the PEPP program.  I expect the Euro to trade lower going into that meeting and year-end, but it will eventually go higher against a structurally bearish US Dollar (Lower real yields, Reflation trade), and vaccines optimism at the en...