FX Macro Strategy

  While the US Capitol was burning the markets kept on going up, reminding us that financial markets and the real world can be totally different at least for some time. And while Bitcoin screaming "Bubble" Yields are screaming "Inflation" (more below on what's that means for the dollar). A lot of interesting stuff for macro guys like me, but for now let's hope that 2021 will be a less dramatic year than 2020. Macro themes for FX majors: USD: Can rising US Yields save the Dollar? My bearish outlook on the dollar going into H1 2021 is still intact due to lower real yields, and USD countercyclical behavior. recently we saw a spike in US 10 year treasury yields, breaching the 1% psychological level, who coincided with a small pullback in the EURUSD pair, the question is does rising US yields will limit the downside of the dollar? and the answer is simply NO. The reason for that is the countercyclical nature of the greenback, whenever Yields are rising on the bac...